Covid-19 again.
Jul. 1st, 2020 10:36 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
which_chickI know we're all damn tired of this Covid-19 shit taking up the entirety of the news cycle that isn't occupied by Russian Bounties For Killing US Soldiers or Black Lives Matter or the upcoming election or whatnot. And ALL of that stuff is deeply important and I'm just... exhausted. But Covid-19.
It's not going the way that healthdata.org predicted back in April. I wish I were more shocked about this.
I made paper notes in April, about the projections, because they kept revising the model and I was feeling sort of 1984 (We have always been at war with EastAsia) about it even though it is reasonable to revise models upon the acquisition of better data. Back then, they predicted we would be having 1 deads per day on June 24. That did not happen. On June 24, we had 819 deads per day. We are still having deads per day, though currently less than 600 per day (seven day moving average).
Deads per day is going down, which is good. But, historically, deads-per-day has lagged infections-per-day. It takes people a while to get sick enough to die of this. So, deads-per-day peaked on 4-21... but the seven day moving average of new-cases peaked (locally, not overall peak like we're heading for yet again) about 4-10.
How bad is this current increase in cases? I suppose we will see in about two weeks. Driving by looking in the rearview is not a super great strategy but it's what we've got.
Locally folks claim that covid-19 was "never a big deal" and is "all part of A Librul Plot" because "They Hate America". My brother thinks he's freaking William Wallace by refusing to wear a mask, all FREEDOM! and stuff. (He is not William Wallace. He is being a jerk to poor minimum wage schlubs who do not get to set statewide health policy.) He also feels the governor is "Reichsfurhrer Wolf" and I'm not sure that's really fair either. While I have many, many, many reasons for not being super-fond of Governor Wolf, I do not think he's trying to exterminate Pennsylvanians. I rather think he's trying to keep them alive.
Today, July 1, according to worldmeter, we have 51,000 new cases in the US.
It's not going the way that healthdata.org predicted back in April. I wish I were more shocked about this.
I made paper notes in April, about the projections, because they kept revising the model and I was feeling sort of 1984 (We have always been at war with EastAsia) about it even though it is reasonable to revise models upon the acquisition of better data. Back then, they predicted we would be having 1 deads per day on June 24. That did not happen. On June 24, we had 819 deads per day. We are still having deads per day, though currently less than 600 per day (seven day moving average).
Deads per day is going down, which is good. But, historically, deads-per-day has lagged infections-per-day. It takes people a while to get sick enough to die of this. So, deads-per-day peaked on 4-21... but the seven day moving average of new-cases peaked (locally, not overall peak like we're heading for yet again) about 4-10.
How bad is this current increase in cases? I suppose we will see in about two weeks. Driving by looking in the rearview is not a super great strategy but it's what we've got.
Locally folks claim that covid-19 was "never a big deal" and is "all part of A Librul Plot" because "They Hate America". My brother thinks he's freaking William Wallace by refusing to wear a mask, all FREEDOM! and stuff. (He is not William Wallace. He is being a jerk to poor minimum wage schlubs who do not get to set statewide health policy.) He also feels the governor is "Reichsfurhrer Wolf" and I'm not sure that's really fair either. While I have many, many, many reasons for not being super-fond of Governor Wolf, I do not think he's trying to exterminate Pennsylvanians. I rather think he's trying to keep them alive.
Today, July 1, according to worldmeter, we have 51,000 new cases in the US.
