Almost done with election season!
Oct. 31st, 2024 07:54 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
which_chickFeel free to skip this if you're done already, if your brain is full already, or if you are just plain tired of hearing about it. Should you choose to press onward, note that this post is going to be about election stuff, not the candidates so much as the strategy evidenced by the Republican party.
In particular, the Republicans sent JD Vance to the Bedford County Airport last night and I'm a bit confused as to why.
Bedford County is in south-central PA. In the 2020 election, about 83.5% of the votes cast in this county were for Donald Trump as the preferred presidential candidate. Saying that Bedford County is a Republican stronghold is a pretty legitimate statement.
In 2020, there were 27,574 total votes cast (out of 34,239 registered voters, some of whom, obviously, did not vote at all) in Bedford County for president. That's an 80.53% turnout, which is pretty good. Overall turnout for the 2020 election was around 66%.
Most recent statistics as of 10/28/24 show that there are 33,801 registered voters in Bedford County. We can assume about 80% of these people will vote again, regardless of who does or does not come here to stump for the candidates. (Pandemic was not something that depressed voter rates here. People didn't give a shit.) So, that's about 27,221 votes likely to happen for the 2024 election.
Odds are great that about 83.5% of those votes will go for Mr. Trump again this time. These are conservative country folk, trending older. According to the spreadsheet from here (it downloads as an xls file), 17,109 of Bedford County's voters are 55 or older. Another 5,103 are in the 45-54 age bracket. These are the salt of the earth who can reliably be expected to turn out and vote for whoever has the R beside their name. They're not gonna vote for Harris. They're just... not.
Mathing our way along, that's 22,729 reasonably-expected votes for Mr. Trump out of Bedford County, PA for the 2024 election. (There are 24,905 registered Republicans in the county in 2024 but not all of them turn out to vote.) Now, I think he might do better than that on brown and lady grounds, but we'll stick to the math and the 2020 results.
The "not likely to vote" Republicans in Bedford County number 2,176, which is not a lot of votes. Even assuming that Mr. Vance is the world's best public speaker who will energize and enthuse the locals, at best there are only (33,801-22,729) votes available to be gained on the ground in Bedford County... 11,072 votes. Some of those votes are not gettable no matter how effective Mr. Vance is. But the absolute best that Mr. Vance can do here is 11K votes. That's how many registered voters there are who are not already likely to vote for Mr. Trump.
So, the min-max on Mr. Vance's visit to Bedford County looks something like this:
Minimum result: No votes change or increase due to Mr. Vance's visit. +0 votes (The current number of people projected to vote for Mr. Trump in this county would not decrease even if Mr. Vance had taken off all his clothes and jerked it to pictures of a couch so that he could spray warm semen in the faces of the people at the front of the crowd. There is absolutely nothing Mr. Vance could do to decrease the number of projected R votes in this county.)
Maximum result: The unenergized nonvoting Republicans get motivated and turn out to cast a ballot for the Trump/Vance ticket. +2,176 votes
Insanely unlikely result: Mr. Vance energizes all remaining votes in Bedford County and 100% of the registered voters turn out and vote for the Trump/Vance ticket. +11,072 votes
My question, I guess, is why isn't Mr. Vance somewhere like, say, Montgomery County, where there are 632,000 voters, roughly 215,000 of whom are registered Republicans?
In 2020, Montgomery County cast 185,460 votes for Mr. Trump out of a pool of 510,157 votes cast. That's 36.35% of the votes cast, yes, but it's still a lot of votes. There were 211,868 registered Republicans in Montgomery County in 2020, so we can assume that 87.54% of Republicans in Montgomery County voted. (Likely some registered D's voted for Trump and vice versa. But I'm just spitballing, here.) Also, in 2020, Montgomery County had 609,195 total registered voters, so that's an 83.75% turnout, which is pretty legit. Good Job Montgomery County!
For 2024, if the numbers hold and folks vote at the same rate and at the same percentages, Mr. Trump should get 188,211 votes from Montgomery County. Still on the table are the 26,789 "not likely" voters who are registered Republican but which our maths show are not likely to vote, going by what they did in 2020.
Even more interesting is the fact that there are the 443,789 gettable votes available in Montgomery County, the votes that are not already in the bag for Mr. Trump.
Hunh. A min max for Vance going to Montgomery County would look something like this....
Minimum result: No change. +0 votes.
Maximum result: 26,789 uninspired Republicans get inspired and make their way to the polls to vote for Trump/Vance. +26,789 votes. (This is more than the total number of "not already voting for Trump/Vance" votes available in Bedford County.)
Insanely unlikely result: The 443,789 not-already-voting-Republican voters from all party affiliations somehow are convinced by Mr. Vance's silver tongue and compelling arguments so they decide to vote for the Trump/Vance ticket. +442,789 votes.
I guess I just feel like there's more ground to be gained by being in Montgomery County, y'know? Why here?
Dad suggested that maybe it was downballot races. I don't think so. Most of our downballot is not at risk or even close enough to matter.
Senate: Casey vs McCormick. (D, Casey is incumbent, should win)
Auditor General is irrelevant to national politics: Kenyatta vs Defoor (R, Defoor is incumbent, not sure on polling)
PA 13th (Representative): Farnham vs Joyce (R, Joyce is incumbent, will win. Sorry, Beth.)
State Rep: Topper (R, pa78th) is unopposed and will win
McClelland/Garrity (R incumbent, election denier. D not great.)
So, not sure what the fuck the Trump/Vance ticket is doing in terms of strategy.
In particular, the Republicans sent JD Vance to the Bedford County Airport last night and I'm a bit confused as to why.
Bedford County is in south-central PA. In the 2020 election, about 83.5% of the votes cast in this county were for Donald Trump as the preferred presidential candidate. Saying that Bedford County is a Republican stronghold is a pretty legitimate statement.
In 2020, there were 27,574 total votes cast (out of 34,239 registered voters, some of whom, obviously, did not vote at all) in Bedford County for president. That's an 80.53% turnout, which is pretty good. Overall turnout for the 2020 election was around 66%.
Most recent statistics as of 10/28/24 show that there are 33,801 registered voters in Bedford County. We can assume about 80% of these people will vote again, regardless of who does or does not come here to stump for the candidates. (Pandemic was not something that depressed voter rates here. People didn't give a shit.) So, that's about 27,221 votes likely to happen for the 2024 election.
Odds are great that about 83.5% of those votes will go for Mr. Trump again this time. These are conservative country folk, trending older. According to the spreadsheet from here (it downloads as an xls file), 17,109 of Bedford County's voters are 55 or older. Another 5,103 are in the 45-54 age bracket. These are the salt of the earth who can reliably be expected to turn out and vote for whoever has the R beside their name. They're not gonna vote for Harris. They're just... not.
Mathing our way along, that's 22,729 reasonably-expected votes for Mr. Trump out of Bedford County, PA for the 2024 election. (There are 24,905 registered Republicans in the county in 2024 but not all of them turn out to vote.) Now, I think he might do better than that on brown and lady grounds, but we'll stick to the math and the 2020 results.
The "not likely to vote" Republicans in Bedford County number 2,176, which is not a lot of votes. Even assuming that Mr. Vance is the world's best public speaker who will energize and enthuse the locals, at best there are only (33,801-22,729) votes available to be gained on the ground in Bedford County... 11,072 votes. Some of those votes are not gettable no matter how effective Mr. Vance is. But the absolute best that Mr. Vance can do here is 11K votes. That's how many registered voters there are who are not already likely to vote for Mr. Trump.
So, the min-max on Mr. Vance's visit to Bedford County looks something like this:
Minimum result: No votes change or increase due to Mr. Vance's visit. +0 votes (The current number of people projected to vote for Mr. Trump in this county would not decrease even if Mr. Vance had taken off all his clothes and jerked it to pictures of a couch so that he could spray warm semen in the faces of the people at the front of the crowd. There is absolutely nothing Mr. Vance could do to decrease the number of projected R votes in this county.)
Maximum result: The unenergized nonvoting Republicans get motivated and turn out to cast a ballot for the Trump/Vance ticket. +2,176 votes
Insanely unlikely result: Mr. Vance energizes all remaining votes in Bedford County and 100% of the registered voters turn out and vote for the Trump/Vance ticket. +11,072 votes
My question, I guess, is why isn't Mr. Vance somewhere like, say, Montgomery County, where there are 632,000 voters, roughly 215,000 of whom are registered Republicans?
In 2020, Montgomery County cast 185,460 votes for Mr. Trump out of a pool of 510,157 votes cast. That's 36.35% of the votes cast, yes, but it's still a lot of votes. There were 211,868 registered Republicans in Montgomery County in 2020, so we can assume that 87.54% of Republicans in Montgomery County voted. (Likely some registered D's voted for Trump and vice versa. But I'm just spitballing, here.) Also, in 2020, Montgomery County had 609,195 total registered voters, so that's an 83.75% turnout, which is pretty legit. Good Job Montgomery County!
For 2024, if the numbers hold and folks vote at the same rate and at the same percentages, Mr. Trump should get 188,211 votes from Montgomery County. Still on the table are the 26,789 "not likely" voters who are registered Republican but which our maths show are not likely to vote, going by what they did in 2020.
Even more interesting is the fact that there are the 443,789 gettable votes available in Montgomery County, the votes that are not already in the bag for Mr. Trump.
Hunh. A min max for Vance going to Montgomery County would look something like this....
Minimum result: No change. +0 votes.
Maximum result: 26,789 uninspired Republicans get inspired and make their way to the polls to vote for Trump/Vance. +26,789 votes. (This is more than the total number of "not already voting for Trump/Vance" votes available in Bedford County.)
Insanely unlikely result: The 443,789 not-already-voting-Republican voters from all party affiliations somehow are convinced by Mr. Vance's silver tongue and compelling arguments so they decide to vote for the Trump/Vance ticket. +442,789 votes.
I guess I just feel like there's more ground to be gained by being in Montgomery County, y'know? Why here?
Dad suggested that maybe it was downballot races. I don't think so. Most of our downballot is not at risk or even close enough to matter.
Senate: Casey vs McCormick. (D, Casey is incumbent, should win)
Auditor General is irrelevant to national politics: Kenyatta vs Defoor (R, Defoor is incumbent, not sure on polling)
PA 13th (Representative): Farnham vs Joyce (R, Joyce is incumbent, will win. Sorry, Beth.)
State Rep: Topper (R, pa78th) is unopposed and will win
McClelland/Garrity (R incumbent, election denier. D not great.)
So, not sure what the fuck the Trump/Vance ticket is doing in terms of strategy.
no subject
Date: 2024-10-31 01:21 pm (UTC)I understand that both sides in the US campaign are supposed to be concentrating on swing states so yeah, it's a bit of a mystery why someone would go somewhere the vote was assured!
no subject
Date: 2024-10-31 06:17 pm (UTC)We gotta do better to make sure that everyone who WANTS to vote has a fair chance to do so. And that's just not the case right now.
For a quickie example (This is a current enthusiasm and will pass. Once we have selected a new leader, I will be not-interested in politics again until the midterm election in 2026.), I vote in Emmaville, at the Brush Creek Municipal Building. There is hardly ever anyone in line in front of me. Max time to vote in person for me is like ten minutes, start to finish.
In fact, there's only been a line in Emmaville to vote one time. We had to wait half an hour. That was in 2016. (There was no line in 2020, it was a snoozefest. So, this year we'll be using the Is there a line to vote in Emmaville at 7:30AM? metric for Election Prediction. Watch this space.)
But, I see reports in the news and anecdotally, online, of people who had to wait four flipping hours to vote. Wow. That's a lot of waiting in line for something that doesn't end with Taylor Swift on stage. I'm not sure I'd be arsed to vote if I had to wait in line for four flipping hours, especially if it was in Georgia heat.
Ideally polls would be located and staffed so that nobody had to wait in line for four hours. Or states could use a mail-in option. Or early in-person voting where people had like two weeks to get it done. I don't really care how they manage it, but there should be a way for everyone to vote that doesn't take up more than about half an hour of their time. That seems reasonable, to me.
But we don't have that state of affairs yet and the current situation somehow makes voting hardest (logistically, timewise, etc.) on our most disadvantaged citizens. And that's wrong. We have an obligation to do better, for all our citizens.