Damn it, Dad...
Mar. 13th, 2020 08:32 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
which_chickI've been worried about the Covid-19 thing for a while.
I was worried about "new disease near the wet market in Wuhan".
I was worried about "Hubei Province in Lockdown"
I was worried about "skies over China 25% clearer from space."
I was worried about Maersk reducing their earnings estimate for q1.
And I was worried that we weren't testing for shit... so that the US would be caught flat-footed in this fucking thing.
By the time I picked my dad up from the airport on February 18th, I was worried enough about the Covid-19 thing that I asked him about selling our stocks. "Dad," I said, "I think the market is way overvalued and waiting for an incident to topple it. I think that this Covid-19 thing IS THE INCIDENT. I think we should sell our stocks. Like, tomorrow morning at market open. I'm serious." (This was on the car ride home from the airport. Like, it could not wait until the next day. I was super-convinced that this was important.)
Dad said, "It is a nothingburger. It is all in China. The companies we have picked are good companies and we shall HOLD ON to them. I do not think that large, multinational blue chips like Nestle and Coca-Cola will lose value just because of the bird flu or whatever."
And I said, "Ok. We will hold on to them. However, when they go down, we are NOT SELLING THEM FOR LOSSES because all of them are way the hell up now and I asked you about selling RIGHT NOW, QUITE POINTEDLY and you said NO. So there will be no selling later. EVEN IF THEY GO DOWN A LOT LIKE I THINK THEY WILL. Further, if I am right about this, you are going to LISTEN to me when I say it is time to buy back into the market. And when I say it is time, we will dump rather a lot of money into the market at that juncture, spending it on blue chips that will be deeply discounted due to the 2% (lowball estimate) reduction in the GDP that I expect this year."
Here is the market on February 19th, the next trading day after I had this discussion with my father. I saw brother-the-younger that weekend at trivia. I told him he should sell his stocks, promptly, at the Monday open. He laughed and said I was turning into a doom-n-gloom-er.
Damn it, Dad. I have held every stock I've ever bought for nine years and when I mention maybe we should sell, you tell me I am overreacting.
Here is the same chart with more history so that you can appreciate my feels. I really really felt it was time to sell at what was LITERALLY the absolute top of the longest bull market in history. It started to fall on Monday, February 23.
Damn it, Dad.
And so this is depressing, yes. Our stuff is down and nobody listened to me. Nobody.
BUT (wait for it) GUESS WHO NOW THINKS WE NEED TO SELL THE FUCKING STOCKS BEFORE WE LOSE MORE MONEY?????????? ARGH. He still doesn't believe me on the GDP reduction, but he will. (If he doesn't die of Covid-19.)
Damn it, Dad. You are NOT HELPING. (We are not selling. But damn it...)
The absolute only bright side of this whole bullshit affair is that I did indeed sell my own personal SPY shares in my Roth IRA. I got 335/share for them on 2-20-2020. Right now, even after a blindingly stellar close this afternoon, SPY is going for 269/share. #feelingclever However, I expect SPY (and the markets in general) to tank further so not quite done winning yet.
We could have done so much better. Damn it, Dad.
I was worried about "new disease near the wet market in Wuhan".
I was worried about "Hubei Province in Lockdown"
I was worried about "skies over China 25% clearer from space."
I was worried about Maersk reducing their earnings estimate for q1.
And I was worried that we weren't testing for shit... so that the US would be caught flat-footed in this fucking thing.
By the time I picked my dad up from the airport on February 18th, I was worried enough about the Covid-19 thing that I asked him about selling our stocks. "Dad," I said, "I think the market is way overvalued and waiting for an incident to topple it. I think that this Covid-19 thing IS THE INCIDENT. I think we should sell our stocks. Like, tomorrow morning at market open. I'm serious." (This was on the car ride home from the airport. Like, it could not wait until the next day. I was super-convinced that this was important.)
Dad said, "It is a nothingburger. It is all in China. The companies we have picked are good companies and we shall HOLD ON to them. I do not think that large, multinational blue chips like Nestle and Coca-Cola will lose value just because of the bird flu or whatever."
And I said, "Ok. We will hold on to them. However, when they go down, we are NOT SELLING THEM FOR LOSSES because all of them are way the hell up now and I asked you about selling RIGHT NOW, QUITE POINTEDLY and you said NO. So there will be no selling later. EVEN IF THEY GO DOWN A LOT LIKE I THINK THEY WILL. Further, if I am right about this, you are going to LISTEN to me when I say it is time to buy back into the market. And when I say it is time, we will dump rather a lot of money into the market at that juncture, spending it on blue chips that will be deeply discounted due to the 2% (lowball estimate) reduction in the GDP that I expect this year."
Here is the market on February 19th, the next trading day after I had this discussion with my father. I saw brother-the-younger that weekend at trivia. I told him he should sell his stocks, promptly, at the Monday open. He laughed and said I was turning into a doom-n-gloom-er.
Damn it, Dad. I have held every stock I've ever bought for nine years and when I mention maybe we should sell, you tell me I am overreacting.
Here is the same chart with more history so that you can appreciate my feels. I really really felt it was time to sell at what was LITERALLY the absolute top of the longest bull market in history. It started to fall on Monday, February 23.
Damn it, Dad.
And so this is depressing, yes. Our stuff is down and nobody listened to me. Nobody.
BUT (wait for it) GUESS WHO NOW THINKS WE NEED TO SELL THE FUCKING STOCKS BEFORE WE LOSE MORE MONEY?????????? ARGH. He still doesn't believe me on the GDP reduction, but he will. (If he doesn't die of Covid-19.)
Damn it, Dad. You are NOT HELPING. (We are not selling. But damn it...)
The absolute only bright side of this whole bullshit affair is that I did indeed sell my own personal SPY shares in my Roth IRA. I got 335/share for them on 2-20-2020. Right now, even after a blindingly stellar close this afternoon, SPY is going for 269/share. #feelingclever However, I expect SPY (and the markets in general) to tank further so not quite done winning yet.
We could have done so much better. Damn it, Dad.
